Rates are hanging in there today, which honestly feels a little rude to logic after this morning’s hot inflation report.

The Producer Price Index came in much hotter than expected, and normally that kind of inflation news would send mortgage bonds straight into witness protection. But so far, mortgage bonds are trading near unchanged levels, which is a decent win considering the data.

Here’s the simple version:

Producer prices rose 1.4% in April, way above the 0.5% estimate.

Year over year, headline producer inflation jumped from 4.3% to 6%.

Core producer inflation, which strips out food and energy, rose 1%, more than three times the expected 0.3%.

A big part of the headline increase came from a sharp rise in gasoline prices, because apparently we needed another reminder that energy prices love making everyone’s life more expensive.

There was also a jump in services, though a good portion of that came from trade service margins. That still counts toward inflation, but it’s not quite as ugly as broad-based price increases across the entire economy.

On the mortgage side, the data was actually encouraging.

Mortgage applications showed rates unchanged at 6.46%, which is still about 0.40% lower than this time last year.

Purchase applications rose 4% last week and are now 7% higher year over year.

That matters. Buyers are still active, even with rates not exactly rolling out the red carpet.

The big thing to watch today is the 30-year Treasury auction. Yesterday’s 10-year auction was a little weak, which did not help the bond market. If today’s auction shows strong demand, that could help rates stabilize. If demand is weak, we could see some pressure.

Technically, the 10-year Treasury is sitting near some of its highest yield levels since last July, with the important 4.50% area just above us. If yields break higher, mortgage rates could feel it. If that level holds, we may avoid more damage.

Bottom Line

Today’s inflation report was not friendly, but mortgage bonds are holding up better than expected.

For buyers, the message is still the same: don’t try to perfectly time the market. Rates can move quickly, and the best opportunities usually show up for people who are prepared before everyone else realizes the window opened.

As always, I’ll keep watching the data so your clients don’t have to pretend they enjoy Treasury auctions.

— Brooks

You closed. You handed over the keys. You moved on to the next one.

And that client? Still one of the warmest leads you'll ever have.

Most agents know this and still don't do anything about it. Not because they don't care — because they don't have a system. So here's one. Three touches. Simple. No awkward "just checking in" energy.

Touch 1: The 30-Day Useful Text

Skip the generic "How's the new home?" and send something they can actually use.

"Hey [Name] — make sure you've filed your homestead exemption if you haven't yet. Deadline is coming up. Also worth scheduling HVAC service before summer hits. Nothing you need from me — just wanted to flag it!"

Specific. Helpful. Easy to respond to.

Touch 2: The Annual Equity Update

Once a year, send every past client one number.

"Homes in your neighborhood are selling around $[X] right now. You've built about $[Y] in equity since closing. Happy to pull more detail if you ever want it."

They share it with their spouse. Their spouse mentions it to a coworker. That coworker has been thinking about buying.

That's a referral — and you never asked for one.

Touch 3: The Market Moment Text

When something shifts in the market that affects their neighborhood, you reach out. Rate drop. Inventory spike. New development nearby.

"Saw something I thought you'd want to know — [one sentence]. Wanted to flag it in case it matters for you."

When clients get messages that have nothing to do with you needing something, you stop being their agent and become their person in real estate.

That's when one closed deal starts turning into three conversations — and eventually, three referrals. Don’t sleep on the relationships you’ve already made an impression on.