Rates are starting the week under pressure, because apparently the market decided we were getting a little too comfortable.

Oil prices are higher, with WTI trading near $109 per barrel, and that matters because higher oil prices can feed inflation concerns. Inflation concerns are usually not great for mortgage rates, which is why mortgage bonds are down sharply and the 10-year Treasury has moved above 4.65%.

That 10-year move is the big thing to watch. When it pushes higher, mortgage rates typically feel the pressure.

There is also attention on incoming Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. The market will likely want to see him take a tough stance on inflation, even if the Fed may still look to cut later in the year. Oddly enough, talking tough on inflation could help calm the bond market and give rates some relief.

Because finance likes to be confusing for sport.

Housing Update

The higher rate environment, combined with rising home values, continues to create a lock-in effect for homeowners.

Many would move, but low existing mortgage rates, big equity gains, and outdated capital gains tax rules are keeping some sellers on the sidelines.

There are proposals like the More Homes on the Market Act that would increase the capital gains exclusion and index it to inflation. If something like that eventually passes, it could help free up more inventory.

Not a magic fix, but in this market, more inventory would be a welcome development.

Builder Confidence

The NAHB Housing Market Index improved from 34 to 37, which was better than expected. That said, anything below 50 still signals contraction, so this is improvement from weak levels, not exactly a victory parade.

A few key takeaways:

That last number is important for agents. Builders are still competing for buyers, and incentives remain a major tool to help with affordability.

Bottom Line

Rates are under pressure this week as oil prices rise, mortgage bonds fall, and the 10-year Treasury breaks above key levels.

For agents, the message to buyers is simple: don’t panic, but don’t ignore the market either.

There are still opportunities, especially with builder incentives and improving inventory in some areas. The buyers who understand the full picture are usually in a much better position than the ones waiting for the “perfect market.”

And the perfect market, naturally, is still running late.

— Brooks

Most agents use social media to stay in touch with people they already know.

The agents gaining ground right now are doing something different.

They're building an audience of people who don't know them yet.

That's not a small distinction. It's the whole game.

When you post a market update and your sister likes it, that's not audience building. When a first-time buyer in your city finds your video while scrolling, watches the whole thing, follows you, and three months later sends you a DM saying "I think I'm ready" — that's a completely different business model.

The agents figuring this out are treating their content like a storefront on a busy street instead of a flyer in a mailbox.

Here's what that actually looks like:

They're not posting about themselves. They're posting about the market, the process, the questions buyers are already Googling. Content that a stranger would find useful before they ever decide who to call.

They're not posting occasionally. They're showing up often enough that the algorithm starts serving their content to people outside their existing network. That threshold is different on every platform, but it doesn't happen at two posts a week.

They're not trying to go viral. They're trying to be the most consistently helpful voice in their local market. Helpful compounds. Viral is a lottery ticket.

The practical shift:

Before you post anything this week, ask one question: would a complete stranger find this useful?

If the answer is yes, post it. If it's really only interesting to people who already know you, save it for your database.

One creates an audience. The other maintains one.

The agents pulling ahead figured out the difference. Now you have too.